Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.016590 0.018776 0.021144 0.023899 0.027020 0.030444 0.034489
2025-09-14 0.012601 0.015485 0.018875 0.023157 0.028426 0.034703 0.042763
2025-09-21 0.010534 0.013693 0.017619 0.022863 0.029693 0.038305 0.050013
2025-09-28 0.008915 0.012131 0.016316 0.022165 0.030150 0.040692 0.055718
2025-10-05 0.008230 0.011656 0.016293 0.023040 0.032632 0.045821 0.065410
2025-10-12 0.007577 0.011120 0.016090 0.023583 0.034634 0.050389 0.074671
2025-10-19 0.007051 0.010691 0.015964 0.024179 0.036705 0.055168 0.084607
2025-10-26 0.006412 0.010018 0.015400 0.024041 0.037629 0.058280 0.092258
2025-11-02 0.005899 0.009479 0.014972 0.024045 0.038730 0.061700 0.100622
2025-11-09 0.005356 0.008835 0.014316 0.023611 0.039069 0.063910 0.107186
2025-11-16 0.005029 0.008507 0.014123 0.023893 0.040567 0.068064 0.117256
2025-11-23 0.004646 0.008048 0.013675 0.023698 0.041232 0.070865 0.125232
2025-11-30 0.004421 0.007845 0.013644 0.024230 0.043216 0.076111 0.138029
2025-12-07 0.003997 0.007257 0.012907 0.023463 0.042854 0.077262 0.143638
2025-12-14 0.003693 0.006856 0.012459 0.023165 0.043291 0.079834 0.152019
2025-12-21 0.003361 0.006372 0.011821 0.022459 0.042901 0.080847 0.157528
2025-12-28 0.003280 0.006352 0.012027 0.023345 0.045577 0.087760 0.174953
2026-01-04 0.003160 0.006244 0.012059 0.023896 0.047644 0.093666 0.190896
2026-01-11 0.003055 0.006155 0.012118 0.024500 0.049857 0.100019 0.208273
2026-01-18 0.002871 0.005894 0.011819 0.024359 0.050554 0.103404 0.219815
2026-01-25 0.002717 0.005683 0.011601 0.024364 0.051542 0.107444 0.233059
2026-02-01 0.002530 0.005386 0.011186 0.023924 0.051557 0.109462 0.242117
2026-02-08 0.002429 0.005262 0.011118 0.024209 0.053140 0.114896 0.259111